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The Global Financial Crisis Experts Survey - The Current (12/10/2014) Results

Crisis Survey Summary and Details | 1st Sample | 2nd Sample
GFC Research.com | FCIC Report | Crisis Books | Crisis Papers

Which narrative presented by Douglas Elliott and Martin Baily of the Brookings Institute in
Telling the Narrative of the Financial Crisis: Not Just a Housing Bubble
best represents the causes of the Financial Crisis?

It was the fault of the government It was Wall Street’s fault “Everyone” was at fault: Wall Street, the government, and our wider society. None of the Three Narratives.
  1. Fred Foldvary
  2. Jeremy Hammond
  3. Robert Hardaway
  4. Ross Levine
  5. Francis Longstaff
  6. Ann Pettifor
  7. Edward Pinto
  8. Jay W. Richards
  9. Robert Rodriguez
  10. Paul Sperry
  11. Michael Hirsh/Nomi Prins (1/2 each)
  1. Larry Allen
  2. Dean Baker ("biggest villains")
  3. Clive Boddy (includes London)
  4. Jerry Davis ("mostly")
  5. Vox Day
  6. James Kwak ("mainly")
  7. John Talbott
  8. Steve Keen
  9. Matthew Watson
  10. Michael Hirsh/Nomi Prins (1/2 each)
  1. Viral Acharya
  2. Phillip Anderson
  3. Roddy Boyd
  4. Aaron Brown
  5. Ludwig Chincarini
  6. Aaron Clarey
  7. Jesse Colombo
  8. Kevin Dowd
  9. Isaac Gradman
  10. Fred Harrison
  11. Michael Lim Mah-Hui
  12. Robert Litan
  13. Johan Lybeck
  14. Matthew Lynn "government was most at fault"
  15. Jacob Madsen "Most of all economists are to blame"
  16. Nolan McCarty
  17. Yalman Onaran
  18. Donald Rapp
  19. Christine Richard
  20. John Rubino
  21. Nicholas Ryder
  22. Hersh Shefrin
  23. Peter Tanous
  24. Jennifer Taub "Wall Street, institutional investors and the government"
  25. Christopher Thornberg
  26. Richard Vague
  27. John Wasik
  1. Larry Doyle
  2. Nye Lavalle
  3. Les Leopold
  4. Richard Roll
  5. Laurence Siegel
  6. John Train

Which FCIC View best represents the causes of the Financial Crisis?

Majority Conclusions Dissenting Views By Hennessey, Holtz-Eakin & Thomas Dissenting Views By Wallison None of the Three Views
  1. Phillip Anderson
  2. Dean Baker
  3. Roddy Boyd
  4. Aaron Clarey
  5. Jerry Davis
  6. Isaac Gradman
  7. Michael Hirsh
  8. James Kwak
  9. Nolan McCarty
  10. Michael Lim Mah-Hui
  11. Robert Litan
  12. Yalman Onaran
  13. Ann Pettifor
  14. Nomi Prins
  15. Donald Rapp
  16. Nicholas Ryder
  17. Hersh Shefrin
  18. Jennifer Taub
  19. Christopher Thornberg
  20. John Wasik
  1. Larry Allen
  2. Aaron Brown
  3. Jesse Colombo
  4. Fred Foldvary
  1. Kevin Dowd
  2. Robert Hardaway
  3. Francis Longstaff
  4. Edward Pinto
  5. Jay W. Richards
  6. Robert Rodriguez
  7. John Rubino
  8. Paul Sperry
  1. Viral Acharya
  2. Ludwig Chincarini (Wallison's most eloquently written)
  3. Vox Day
  4. Larry Doyle
  5. Steve Keen
  6. Nye Lavalle
  7. Les Leopold
  8. Ross Levine
  9. Johan Lybeck
  10. Richard Roll
  11. Laurence Siegel (with a hat tip to Wallison)
  12. Matthew Watson

3. The Global Financial Crisis effectively ended in the year

2009 - Phillip Anderson, Nolan McCarty, and Christine Richard (the "crisis" which began with the collapse of the subprime market ended at some point in 2009)

2010 - Fred Foldvary, Johan Lybeck, Christopher Thornberg, and Richard Vague

2011 - Larry Allen ("economic" crisis is still on going)

2012


or, I believe the Global Financial Crisis is ongoing and will end in the year

2013 or beyond - Viral Acharya, Dean Baker, Clive Boddy, Roddy Boyd, Aaron Brown, Ludwig Chincarini, Aaron Clarey, Jesse Colombo, Jerry Davis, Vox Day, Kevin Dowd, Larry Doyle "latter half of this decade", James Galbraith, Isaac Gradman, Jeremy Hammond "no recovery", Robert Hardaway, Fred Harrison, Michael Hirsh "no projected end", Steve Keen, James Kwak "in its broadest sense", Nye Lavalle, Les Leopold, Ross Levine, Michael Lim Mah-Hui, Robert Litan, Francis Longstaff, Matthew Lynn "until 2031", Jacob Madsen, Yalman Onaran, Ann Pettifor, Edward Pinto, Nomi Prins, Donald Rapp, Jay W. Richards, Robert Rodriguez, Richard Roll, John Rubino, Nicholas Ryder, Hersh Shefrin, Laurence Siegel, Paul Sperry, John Talbott "far beyond 2013", Peter Tanous, and John Wasik "we'll keep paying for a generation," and Matthew Watson.

4. What were the primary causes of Global Financial Crisis? (The initial sample only)

5. What still needs to change as a result of the crisis? (The initial sample only)

     Participants list (Crisis Expert Qualification)

  1. Viral Acharya (Book Author)
  2. Larry Allen (Book Author)
  3. Phillip Anderson (Book Author)
  4. Dean Baker (Crisis Predictor & Book Author)
  5. Clive Boddy (Book Author & Published Paper)
  6. Roddy Boyd (Book Author)
  7. Aaron Brown (Book Author)
  8. Ludwig Chincarini (Book Author)
  9. Aaron Clarey (Book Author)
  10. Jesse Colombo (Crisis Predictor)
  11. Jerry Davis (Book Author)
  12. Vox Day (Crisis Predictor & Book Author)
  13. Kevin Dowd (Book Author)
  14. Larry Doyle (Book Author)
  15. Fred Foldvary (Crisis Predictor)
  16. James Galbraith (Book Author)
  17. Isaac Gradman (Book Editor)
  18. Jeremy Hammond (Book Author)
  19. Robert Hardaway (Book Author)
  20. Fred Harrison (Crisis Predictor & Book Author)
  21. Michael Hirsh (Book Author)
  22. Steve Keen (Crisis Predictor & Book Author)
  23. James Kwak (Book Author)
  24. Nye Lavalle (Crisis Predictor)
  25. Les Leopold (Book Author)
  26. Ross Levine (Book Author & Published Paper)
  27. Michael Lim Mah-Hui (Book Author)
  28. Robert Litan (Published Paper & Book Editor)
  29. Francis Longstaff (Published Paper)
  30. Johan Lybeck (Book Author)
  31. Matthew Lynn (Book Author)
  32. Jacob Madsen (Crisis Predictor)
  33. Nolan McCarty (Book Author)
  34. Yalman Onaran (Book Author)
  35. Ann Pettifor (Crisis Predictor & Book Author)
  36. Edward Pinto (Research Paper cited in FCIC report)
  37. Nomi Prins (Book Author)
  38. Donald Rapp (Book Author)
  39. Christine Richard (Book Author)
  40. Jay W. Richards (Book Author)
  41. Robert Rodriguez (Crisis Predictor)
  42. Richard Roll (Published Paper)
  43. John Rubino (Crisis Predictor & Book Author)
  44. Nicholas Ryder (Book Author)
  45. Hersh Shefrin (Published Paper)
  46. Laurence Siegel (Published Paper & Book Editor)
  47. Paul Sperry (Book Author)
  48. John Talbott (Crisis Predictor & Book Author)
  49. Peter Tanous (Book Author)
  50. Jennifer Taub (Book Author)
  51. Christopher Thornberg (Crisis Predictor)
  52. John Train (Published Paper & Book Author)
  53. Richard Vague (Book Author)
  54. John Wasik (Book Author)
  55. Matthew Watson (Book Author)



Some additional publicly stated opinions.

Predictors/Winners

Crisis Book Authors

2012 Candidates for President

Others

Compiled by Gary Karz, CFA Follow GKarz on Twitter
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