3. The Global Financial Crisis effectively ended in the year

2009 - Phillip Anderson, and Christine Richard (the "crisis" which began with the collapse of the subprime market ended at some point in 2009)

2010 - Fred Foldvary

2011

or, I believe the Global Financial Crisis is ongoing and will end in the year

2012

2013 or beyond - Viral Acharya, Dean Baker, Clive Boddy, Roddy Boyd, Aaron Brown, Aaron Clarey, Jerry Davis, Vox Day, Kevin Dowd, Isaac Gradman, Robert Hardaway, Fred Harrison, Michael Hirsh "no projected end", Steve Keen, James Kwak "in its broadest sense", Les Leopold, Ross Levine, Michael Lim Mah-Hui, Robert Litan, Francis Longstaff, Matthew Lynn "until 2031", Jacob Madsen, Yalman Onaran, Ann Pettifor, Edward Pinto, Donald Rapp, Robert Rodriguez, Richard Roll, John Rubino, Hersh Shefrin, Laurence Siegel, Paul Sperry, John Talbott "far beyond 2013", Peter Tanous, and John Wasik "we'll keep paying for a generation".

4. What were the primary causes of Global Financial Crisis? (The initial sample only)

5. What still needs to change as a result of the crisis? (The initial sample only)

Participants list (Crisis Expert Qualification)

1. Viral Acharya (Book Author)
2. Phillip Anderson (Book Author)
3. Dean Baker (Crisis Predictor & Book Author)
4. Clive Boddy (Book Author & Published Paper)
5. Roddy Boyd (Book Author)
6. Aaron Brown (Book Author)
7. Aaron Clarey (Book Author)
8. Jerry Davis (Book Author)
9. Vox Day (Crisis Predictor & Book Author)
10. Kevin Dowd (Book Author)
11. Fred Foldvary (Crisis Predictor)
12. Isaac Gradman (Book Editor)
13. Robert Hardaway (Book Author)
14. Fred Harrison (Crisis Predictor & Book Author)
15. Michael Hirsh (Book Author)
16. Steve Keen (Crisis Predictor & Book Author)
17. James Kwak (Book Author)
18. Les Leopold (Book Author)
19. Ross Levine (Book Author & Published Paper)
20. Michael Lim Mah-Hui (Book Author)
21. Robert Litan (Published Paper & Book Editor)
22. Francis Longstaff (Published Paper)
23. Matthew Lynn (Book Author)
24. Jacob Madsen (Crisis Predictor)
25. Yalman Onaran (Book Author)
26. Ann Pettifor (Crisis Predictor & Book Author)
27. Edward Pinto (Research Paper cited in FCIC report)
28. Donald Rapp (Book Author)
29. Christine Richard (Book Author)
30. Robert Rodriguez (Crisis Predictor)
31. Richard Roll (Published Paper)
32. John Rubino (Crisis Predictor & Book Author)
33. Hersh Shefrin (Published Paper)
34. Laurence Siegel (Published Paper & Book Editor)
35. Paul Sperry (Book Author)
36. John Talbott (Crisis Predictor & Book Author)
37. Peter Tanous (Book Author)
38. Jennifer Taub (Book Author)
39. John Train (Published Paper & Book Author)
40. John Wasik (Book Author)

Some additional publicly stated opinions.

2012 Candidates for President

• David J. Lynch (12/21/2011) summarizes the apparent positions of Obama, Romney, and Gingrich in this Bloomberg article, and Peter Ferrara comments further (1/8/2012)
  • Mitt Romney (11/9 debate) “The federal government came in with Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac, and Barney Frank and Chris Dodd told banks they had to give loans to people who couldn’t afford to pay them back.” Plus, Andrea Saul, a spokeswoman for Romney, e-mailed several comments the candidate has made on the crisis, including a passage in his 2010 book “No Apology” that says responsibility for the 2008 panic shouldn’t “be laid solely at the feet of Wall Street and the private sector.”
  • Newt Gingrich has suggested jailing Frank, the former chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, and Dodd, who headed the Senate Banking Committee until his retirement this year.
  • "President Barack Obama cited Wall Street misdeeds last year in signing the most comprehensive new financial regulations in more than 75 years."
  • In a Gallup Poll released on Dec. 12, 64 percent of respondents said “big government” is the main threat to the country, compared with 26 percent who said “big business.”
• Ryan Chittum gives his take on the republican candidates (12/21/2011)
  • Ron Paul (9/26/2008) has been saying for nearly a decade that Fannie and Freddie would cause/did cause a housing bubble
  • Rick Santorum (9/27/2011) - Santorum discussion (1/9/2012)
• Independent candidate Laurence Kotlikoff (and author of Jimmy Stewart Is Dead: Ending the World's Ongoing Financial Plague) summarized his Prescriptions to Heal Economy (9/27/2011) and How to Fix Mortgage Mess (1/13/2011) at Bloomberg.

Predictors/Winners

• Sheila Bair argued in Short-termism and the risk of another financial crisis (7/8/2011) in the WP that "The common thread running through all the causes of our economic tumult is a pervasive and persistent insistence on favoring the short term over the long term, impulse over patience. . . the No. 1 cause of both the crisis and the subpar recovery we are in: a stubborn refusal to deal head-on with past-due and underwater mortgages."
• Dr. Michael Burry is featured in Michael Lewis's The Big Short and this Chapter in Vanity Fair is online. The ScionCapital web site includes the following commentary ... "Dr. Burry repeatedly wrote that he had no faith that the SEC, the Federal Reserve, or any other branch of government, least of all Congress, would act to keep the housing bubble from expanding. In fact, Dr. Burry felt the government was absolutely complicit in enabling the housing bubble."
• Ron Paul made his views clear in Blame the Fed for the Financial Crisis (10/20/2011) in the WSJ. We can assume he blames the Government.
• Joseph Stiglitz suggests the global financial crisis was due, at least in part, to the war in The true cost of the Iraq war: $3 trillion and beyond (9/5/2010) in the Washington Post.

Crisis Book Authors

• Roger Lowenstein summarized some of the regulatory problems that caused the crisis in Banking Fix Made Easy With Six Simple Steps (11/16/2009)
• In Washington’s Financial Disaster (1/29/2011), regarding the FCIC report, Frank Partnoy concluded that "Congress should try again." In Did Fannie Cause the Disaster? (10/27/11) Partnoy and Jeff Madrick review Gretchen Morgenson and Joshua Rosner's Reckless Endangerment and they conclude "Contrary to many commentators on Reckless Endangerment, and to its chief claims, it was Wall Street, not the GSEs, that fundamentally caused the 2007–2008 crisis." Christopher Whalen has a Letter to Editor (11/16/2011) on his web site in response. He summarizes "the housing GSEs and the Wall Street banks are one and the same. Arguing about which did more harm is a frivolous waste of time by some very smart people."
• Barry Ritholtz's Who is to Blame, 1-25 (6/29/2009) in Bailout Nation
• Nassim Nicholas Taleb - Why Did the Crisis of 2008 Happen? (8/26/2010)

Others

• Michael Bloomberg said Blame Congress, not Wall Street (11/1/2011) - Ritholtz comments in the WP on 11/5/2011 and 11/19/11
• Mortimer Zuckerman in Who to Blame for the Financial Crisis from USNews (1/29/2010)
• FactCheck.org (Joe Miller and Brooks Jackson) in Who Caused the Economic Crisis? (10/1/2008)

Compiled by Gary Karz, CFA
Host of InvestorHome

Please send suggestions and comments to Investor Home

Last update 4/12/2012. Copyright © 2012 Investor Home. All rights reserved. Disclaimer